01 A useful feature must exist when you decide
A later refund can explain a cancellation without helping you predict it.
Define the claim. Separate the evidence. Defend the decision.
Start with the evidence| Change | Human | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Earlier copy | +2 pp | +1 pp |
| New fee | Not measured | +3 pp |
A later refund can explain a cancellation without helping you predict it.
A new fee policy needs evidence about people, not just responses from a simulated panel.
“When the intervention genuinely moves the tail” (opens the source)
Capping legitimate large orders changes what your experiment measures.
“seek disconfirming evidence for your hypothesis.” (opens the source)
A consumer-level comparison does not remove competition for shared supply.
“Did the experiment adhere to its planned runtime?” (opens the source)
Separate an exploratory result from the decision you specified before the test.
Last reviewed Nov 10, 2026